Tools for Changing the World

CONTENTS

CONTENTS

1Dedication vi

2Acknowledgements vi

3

4Introduction1

5Our role 1

6The challenge 1

7The method 1

8In summary 3

9

10PART 1

11Starting Up: Frames of Reference5

12What Do We Want?

13What does the world want? 7

14Human development and flourishing 7

15

16Basic human rights: 7

17Basic human needs: 7

18Natural systems flourishing 8

19Global goals for global flourishing 8

20Where is the world going? 9

21Models of change/Changing the world 10

22Big picture change 10

23Our picture: Change we initiate 11

24You can change the world 11

25Seven techniques for changing the world 12

26Design science is 13

27How is design science different from other planning processes? 14

28

29Present day problem-solving 17

30Design Science is Proactive 20

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32PART 2

33TOOLS: BEST PRACTICES/CONCEPTUAL TOOLS/PERSPECTIVES23

34Big picture design 25

35Whole to particular 26

36Thinking in systems 27

37

38Why think in systems? 28

39The law of whole systems /synergy 28

40The law of requisite variety 29

41Redundancy ensures survival 29

42Starting with the whole 29

43

44Spaceship Earth 30

45The whole world is now the only relevant unit of problem solving 31

46Thinking long term 32

47Increasing wealth 34

48Technology as a living system/

49Modeling technologies on living systems 35

50

51Biology replaces mechanics 35

52As we create tools, we recreate ourselves 36

53Doing more with less 38

54Making everyone win 39

55Ensuring transparency 40

56Building capacity, not just solving problems 41

57Focusing on design, not politics 42

58Designing for regeneration, not sustainability 43

59

60Beyond sustainability and zero emissions 43

61Designing for development, not growth 44

62Recognizing that needs are markets 45

63Looking for trim tabs / tipping points 46

64Reforming the environment, not the person 47

65

66Artifacts 47

67Designing for scale 48

68Making visible the invisible 48

69

70Diagramming 49

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72Visualizing data 51

73Trends of key variables 52

74Correlation 52

75Mapping geographic data/location/distribution mapping 53

76Modelling 55

77Scenarios 58

78Hierarchical organizing 59

79Metaphor 60

80Input/output analysis 61

81Components/processes 61

82Resources used/needed/available 62

83Who does what—organizations/actors 63

84Impacts and interactions with other areas 63

85Simulation gaming 64

86Decision making criteria 65

87Key indicators 65

88The unquantifiable 66

89Resources to draw upon 66

90Iteration 67

91Taking the design initiative 67

92Being guided by moral vision 68

93Working in teams 69

94Group methods for developing solutions 70

95

96Group priority setting 70

97AI as a tool for defining the problem and developing solutions 70

98

99PART 3

100The Design Science planning process73

101Recognizing the problem situation/

102Choosing the problem 78

103

104Moving from Problem to Problem Situation 78

105Determining the problem #2 79

106Moving from mess to vision 79

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108Considerations in choosing the problem 80

109Functional definitions 81

110Summary 82

111Envisioning the Preferred State 82

112

113Defining the goal 82

114Frames of reference 84

115Brainstorming 85

116Refining the Preferred State 85

117Envisioning the Preferred State with AI assistance 87

118Summary 87

119Defining the Problem State 88

120

121Lenses and yardsticks 89

122Start with the larger system 89

123Dimensions of the problem 90

124Defining the Problem State with AI assistance 92

125Summary 92

126Defining the Present State 93

127

128Context 94

129Alternatives 95

130Evaluating alternatives 96

131Decision making criteria 97

132Gap analysis 97

133Defining the Present State with AI assistance 98

134Summary 98

135Designing the strategy for achieving the Preferred State 99

136

137Solution and strategy development: What, how, who, where, when, cost, funding 99

138Alternative selection 100

139What makes a compelling design and plan? 101

140Identifying the resources required to implement our strategy 102

141Physical resources 102

142Human resources 102

143Financial/legal resources 102

144Financial resources and whole system costs/benefits 103

145Initiating a larger planning process 104

146Process Summary 105

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148Explaining our strategy 106

149Developing the Strategy for reaching the Preferred State with AI assistance 106

150Summary 107

151

152PART 4

153IMPLEMENTATION—TAKING THE INITIATIVE109

154Design Implementation 111

155

156Developing the artifact 112

157Developing the tools or artifacts—further details 114

158Target date for realizing the Preferred State 115

159Actions needed to implement the strategy for achieving the Preferred State 115

160Test/Proof-of-concept phase 115

161Scale-up—The implementation timeline 116

162Critical Path 117

163Documenting the process/Communicating the plan 118

164The communications plan 119

165Developing the Implementation Plan with AI assistance 121

166Summary 121

167Conclusion and next steps:

168Taking the initiative—Where we go from here123

169Appendices

170APPENDIX 1 Global Solutions Lab 129

171APPENDIX 2 Global statistical data sources and data analysis tools 133

172

173United Nations 133

174World Bank 138

175Other international and regional organizations 140

176Other 141

177Economist Intelligence Unit (not free) 145

178United States Government 145

179Data analysis tools 147

180APPENDIX 3 Solutions Libraries 149

181APPENDIX 4 Bibliography 151

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185FIGURES

186Figure 1 The global hierarchy of human development. 7

187Figure 2 United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals 8

188Figure 3 The Future Cone: how might the future develop? 9

189Figure 4. A global timeline from the big bang to the present day: 5 billion years. 33

190Figure 5. Trim tab on a plane. 46

191Figure 6. Extending the range of human vision. 49

192Figure 7. Parts of a wind turbine. 50

193Figure 8. Proposed design for electrifying health clinics in Africa 50

194Figure 9. World population from 5000 BC to 2000 AD 51

195Figure 10. World population from 1980 to 2000 51

196Figure 11. Global trends in armed conflict: 1946 - 2019 52

197Figure 12. The relationship between per capita GDP and per capita emissions of greenhouse gases.

198

199Each dot represents a country. (World Bank data for 2020) 53

200Figure 13. Buckminster Fuller’s world map projection. Relative sizes and shapes of continents are moreaccurate in this projection than in other map projections. 54

201Figure 14. Growth in the number of metropolitan areas with populations over 5 million between 1900

202

203and 2000 shown on the dymaxion projection. 54

204Figure 15. Cartogram of greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. Geographic areas are scaled in proportion to

205

206their greenhouse gas emissions. 55

207Figure 16. Traditional economic model of an economy 56

208Figure 17. Simplified version of the model used in Earth for All. 57

209Figure 18. Model of production, consumption and recycling typical of ecosystems 57

210Figure 19. World population trends and forecasts to 2100. 58

211Figure 20. Scenarios show sea level rise under a range of assumptions on greenhouse gas emissions.

212

213Source: IPCC (2023) 58

214Figure 21. The structure of the United Nations Development Program. An example of a hierarchy 60

215Figure 22. Inputs and outputs of the production stage of the food system 61

216Figure 23. Process flow of wind energy from generation through to user 62

217

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219Figure 24. Potential dashboard for the SDG related to energy 66

220Figure 25. Overview of the design science planning methodology 75

221Figure 26. The Design Science ‘‘Preferred State Problem Solving Planning Process’’ 76

222Figure 27. Step one of the design science planning process: deciding what problem to focus on. Whatwe think of as a ‘‘problem’’, like ‘‘hunger’’, is usually part of a larger set of interacting threats and

223

224opportunities or what may be called the problem situation or ‘‘mess’’. 78

225Figure 28. The preferred state: key constraints and opportunities 83

226Figure 29. Like an iceberg, there is typically much more involved than consideration of the visible

227

228symptoms alone would suggest. 89

229Figure 30. The Present State is the context of the Problem State.

230

231And, the problem state is a part of the Present State. 94

232Figure 31. The design science process for artifact development 115

233Figure 32. A timeline shows the sequence of actions to go from the Problem State to the Preferred State 117

234Figure 33. Timeline for the wind energy component of a global energy strategy 119

235Figure 34. The final step in the design science methodology is implementation. 121

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